Many a politician is fond of making a reverse forecast but what we are talking about here is not predicting something after it has happened, or making a terrible prediction about what might happen, but is, instead, a type of bet. Here we will take a look at what this bet is, how it works, and anything else you need to be aware of if you are thinking about placing such a wager.
Just trying to calculate your bets? You can find a handy bet calculator here that covers most popular types of bet.What Is a Reverse Forecast?
A reverse forecast falls under the wider umbrella of forecast bets, the most basic of which is sometimes also just called a forecast but more accurately should probably be referred to as a straight forecast. We have a very detailed article about the straight forecast and as the bets are so similar, it probably pays to read that feature first. Much of the information is the same and applies to both wagers and so we will keep things rather shorter here when discussing the reverse forecast, often termed simply reverse for short.
Assuming you know what a straight forecast is, a reverse is simply two straight forecasts combined into one bet, such that it no longer matters what order the two selections finish in. Because a reverse forecast includes two forecasts, the stake is twice as much, so a £5 reverse will set you back £10 in total.
“Without the Favourite” Market
Forecasts, be they straight or reversed, are most typically placed on horse races, so let us look at an example from the sports of kings. Let’s say there is a race with six horses, priced at odds of 1/5, 13/2, 16/1, 18/1, 25/1 and 150/1 (which we will now refer to as horses one to six, one being the favourite, six being the 150/1 mule!). You might feel that the favourite is almost certain to win but that 1/5 is just too short a price to offer much appeal. There are various options open to punters in this situation, such as “without the favourite” market, the winning distance, the place market, or backing one of the outsiders, either each way or for small stakes.
Another option is to head to the forecast markets. If you are sure that Horse 1 will win and that Horse 2 is clearly the second-best horse in the race, you might well opt for a (straight) forecast, with Horse 1 to win and Horse 2 to come second. However, if you feel that horse two has it within their capabilities to spring a surprise and you want a little less risk, a reverse forecast may be the way to go.
If the race goes just as you expected and the odds-on favourite beats the 13/2 second favourite to the line, the straight forecast might pay a dividend of £2.29. Had the horses finished the other way round, the favourite being beaten by Horse 2, that would have been much higher, perhaps around the £7.10 mark – in other words a shade over 7/1. Either way, you will get a net win, with a larger return if the underdog wins.
When Should I Opt for a Reverse Forecast?
The example we have given above is one example of a time when you might decide to place a reverse forecast. If you are convinced that those two horses will occupy the top two spots, the potential 7/1 (ish) return can be viewed as a “bet to nothing”. This is gambling terminology used when one portion of a wager is deemed to be very low risk because another part of it is, rightly or wrongly, viewed by the punter as being virtually assured.
With the bet above, the worst-case scenario (as perceived; of course in reality both horses could fail to finish the race, let alone finish in the top two) delivers a small net win. That makes the potential bigger payday a bet to nothing as even if it doesn’t deliver, you’ll still be in the black.
Another time many punters might consider a reverse is when they are really struggling to split the top two. Perhaps one horse is priced at 6/5, another at 7/4 and the field is 8/1 bar. Any punter knows that upsets are possible but on paper at least, the two at the head of the market are well clear of the other runners. If you think the 7/4 shot is a little better than the odds indicate and has a really good chance, a reverse forecast could be the perfect bet. Should the favourite win you might be looking at a dividend of around £3.60, meaning a decent net win on a reverse forecast, whilst if the horse priced at 7/4 wins, that return would be far larger and more like £5.
Yet another time that a reverse might be wise is where you think a favourite might really struggle. If there is a favourite that is heavily backed and well fancied, this can sometimes create value lower down the betting. If you think the favourite is highly opposable, which is to say you think it will be beaten, then a reverse forecast on two horses at longer odds could pay off handsomely.
What Can I Place a Reverse Forecast On?
As we touch on in our article on forecasts, you can place these bets on virtually any event, though they are most often used by horse racing fans. As long as an event has more than three participants and clearly allocates a first and second place, you can, theoretically at least, place a reverse forecast.
Bookies will not necessarily offer them on all such events though, be they races, leagues or tournaments. You will always find them available on horse and dog races, as long as there are enough runners, but in other sports you may need to look under specific specials markets, or even contact the bookie directly for odds. Outrights such as the top two finishers in a league, and motorsports are two other places reverse forecast betting will be available.
Computer Straight Forecast
Where forecasts (and therefore reverse forecasts) are offered in this way, as a special, they will tend to have fixed odds. In contrast, the more traditional way to place them in racing (horse or dog) is using the CSF (computer straight forecast), an algorithm that determines the payout in dividend form specified as the return from a £1 bet.
Another key difference is in the way the bets will be placed. When you place a reverse forecast on racing it will typically be a market that is offered by a bookie, or is easily placed from your slip. In contrast, if you are backing through a fixed-odds special, you may need to place two forecasts. For example, if a bookie offers a bet on who will finish first and second in La Liga, you may need to back Barcelona-Real Madrid and Real Madrid-Barcelona manually. Alternatively, there may be a similar special that equates to a reverse forecast that might be listed as “Top 2 in Any Order” or similar, in which case you would need just one stake but the fixed odds would be lower.
How Are Returns Calculated?
With these sorts of fixed odds forecasts/reverses, winnings and returns are calculated just as they would be with any other bet. The only thing to note would be that if your bet is described as relating to the top two in any order and has just a single stake, your net win will be the same no matter what order the teams, horses or drivers finish in. In contrast, if the reverse is manually created by backing the two applicable fixed odds forecasts, it will depend on the odds of the winning bet.
Should you place a more traditional reverse forecast that relies on the CSF, you will have to wait until after the race (the CSF is only really used for horse racing and dog racing) to know how much you will win. The CSF is, as said, specified as a dividend, so the straight forecast may show a dividend of £8.21. This means that for every £1 you wager, you would get £8.21 back, equating to fractional odds of 7.21/1. No dividend is specified for the reverse forecast as, of course, only one of the two selections wins and so the declared payout is based on that result.
The formula for the CSF is available from the Association of British Bookmakers (ABB). It is far too complex for us to even attempt to decipher but we have it on very good grounds that it is genuinely quite baffling and incredibly complex, even for Carol Vorderman, Rachel Riley and Blaise Pascal (a mathematician who basically invented roulette). The key things it looks at are the number of horses in the race and their odds, and the odds of the horses that finished first and second. Other factors are considered too and using these a dividend, essentially the forecast odds, are determined.
These are the same no matter which bookie you bet with, assuming you use a standard CSF-based forecast. The figure is published shortly after the race and winnings are paid accordingly depending on how much your stake was.
Fixed Odds v Computer v Tote
There is a third option when it comes to backing a reverse forecast and that is the tote-based Exacta, or if we are talking about an any-order bet, a Combination Exacta. This also expresses winnings as a dividend after the race but here the payout is not determined by an overly complex and often controversial formula but, instead, according to the pool.
Any pools bet, also known as a parimutuel bet, of which tote is the main type in the UK, works in a totally different way to what we generally think of as “normal” betting. In very simple terms, the total value of the bets on a given market (after a cut to cover a net win for the bookie, tax and any other costs are deducted) is divided by the value of the winning bets. So in the unlikely scenario that £1,000 is left in the forecast pool after deductions, and there is just a single winning bet, that person would win £1,000.
Among those who love forecasts and reverse forecasts, there is much debate over which way of placing what is, essentially, the same bet, delivers the best net win. It really could be the topic of its own article, if not a PhD paper, so we don’t have the time to look at it in the necessary depth here.
Tote Option May Be Best
It is in some respects like asking which bookie has the best odds. There is not a simple answer and there are many variables to consider. That said, the widely held view seems to be that the tote option may be the best in general. If you are looking to maximise returns there are more nuanced approaches but if you just want the best odds more often than not, then placing a tote Combination Exacta will be the best option… probably.
That said, for most punters, who probably only place the occasional reverse forecast for relatively small stakes, it is not something that is worth getting too bothered about. Sometimes a fixed odds wager may be best, at other times a CSF reverse could be best and at others still the Exacta approach could be best.
Equally, for some punters, the odds are not the only thing that matters. Fixed odds bets are generally simpler and you know in advance exactly what your returns will be. For example, what could be simpler to understand than a market akin to “Horse A and Horse B to finish first and second in any order”? It is very clear and easy for betting newbies to understand and you have one set of odds so your returns are simple to calculate.
What About Non-Runners, Dead Heats & Voids?
As with most bets, the rules are fairly simple once you have a handle on the basics. What’s more, the vast majority of bets will either win or lose, simply, with nothing too unusual cropping up to test your knowledge of how the bet operates.
That said, if change is the only constant, we should expect the unexpected, and the only predictable thing is the unpredictable, we probably shouldn’t be too surprised when a non-runner ruins our reverse forecast, or our two picks finish in a dead heat. We have looked at all these topics more closely in our piece on forecasts so we won’t go into too much detail here. However, in general, we would say the following:
- Customer Services – If you have any queries about how a bet has been settled or why it has been settled in a certain way, give your bookie or a call, or contact them through live chat.
- Dead Heats – A dead heat will reduce your winnings but how this is calculated will vary according to the nature of the dead heat and how the bet was placed (fixed odds, CSF or Exacta).
- Non-Runner or Void – If one of your horses, dogs or other selections is a non-runner some sites will place your bet as a win single whilst others will void the entire bet.
- Insufficient Runners – If non-runners mean that fewer than three horses run, then all bookies will void your bet and return your stake.