The over/under betting market is one of the most popular to bet on for football punters. In fact, Betfair state that it’s their second most popular betting market behind the outright result, and we would hazard a guess that other bookmakers would likely echo that.
The process of the bet is pretty simple in that you need to decide if a game is going to have over or under a set number of goals/tries etc. for that match. What you will usually find is that the bookmaker will include .5 results, such as 1.5 goals, 2.5 goals and so on. This is because it allows the bookie to distinguish a confirmed uncontested result, as no game can ever contain a half goal.
For example, if you were to bet on over 2 goals in a match and the game finished with 2 goals exactly, bookmakers would often see this as a push and refund your stake. By bringing in the half goal it means that the result will always be definitive. So, for an over 2.5 goal bet you would need 3 or more goals to win that bet and anything less than that would lose.
Betting Strategy
The betting strategies below can be adapted for both over and under betting unless otherwise stated.
Look at the bigger picture
It’s important when betting on these types of markets to look further afield than simply the last couple of games that have been played by each team. What you will find is that one or two results can drastically throw off what the ‘true’ statistics are for a certain game.
What we would advise is that you look at least 15 games back, and if that means that you need to dip into last season’s results then feel free; it’s likely that most teams won’t have changed their strategies too much in this timeframe, meaning these results can still count towards your research. You may need to be a little more careful with newly promoted/relegated teams though, as the step up/down in class can often lead to a change in how a team approaches each game, as well as how prolific they are in front of goal.
By applying a larger sample it will give you a much better idea of how each team might perform in each specific game.
Check the over/under goals stats, not total goals
A common error that we see regularly with these sorts of bets is when punters look at the total goals scored or conceded by one team rather than the number of times the over/under result occurred. What’s the difference I hear you cry?
The main difference is that the total number of goals scored in a 15 match sample can be skewed by just a few big results, painting a picture that is not accurate for the market that we are testing. For example, a team could have scored 50 goals in their last 20 games giving them an average of 2.5 total goals per game, but three of those games were 5-3, 6-1 and 4-3, totalling 22 goals in three games. This means that the remaining 17 games averaged just 1.64 goals per game, which is a much lower number than the 2.5 we initially thought.
Instead, we need to look at the number of times the result has been over/under the goal line that we are looking to bet on. Let’s say we wanted to bet on the over 2.5 goals market. We see that the team’s games have totalled over 2.5 goals 75% of the time in their last 20 matches. Interestingly though, they average a lower number of total goals than the skewed example above.
This is always going to be a better bet than going for the team with a higher total goals number.
Get your stats cap on
There is an unbelievable amount of information online these days for football punters, and these types of betting markets are perfect for researching. Sites like Soccer Stats and Win Draw Win are daily visits for most professional bettors as they look to find as much of an edge over the bookmakers as they can.
These stats based sites will give you an overview of exactly which teams have high percentages of over/under games and even let you know when they are playing next. Heck, some even give you latest odds for each bet, meaning you can form your decision almost immediately or at worst, line them up for further research.
A good rule of thumb when applying stats such as the frequency with which a team has been over/under the goal line for the bet in question is to simply use the 65% rule. All you need to do is find 2 teams that both have a 65% or more occurrence of that result and you are likely going to be well on your way to finding a good bet. There is more data that you can apply to each match, as mentioned above, but this is a great starting point.
Don’t discount the over 1.5 goal market
It’s widely agreed that the most popular market to bet within the over/under range is the over 2.5 goals market.
It’s pretty much a coin toss for most matches with this scoreline, but that doesn’t mean that the over 1.5 goals market isn’t a good bet as well.
The odds for this will be shorter than the over 2.5 goals markets because the likelihood that this bet comes in will increase, but you can combine these shorter priced games into an accumulator bet to make for some really strong football bets with better odds for not a great deal more risk.
Consider what’s at stake
It’s important to consider what each team is playing for with these types of bets. Generally, with league games you are good to go as each team will likely be going out there to win the game and simply move on to the next fixture if they don’t.
The problems start to arise when it comes to cup games or even end of season games as well to some extent. With cup games, teams may be looking to either hold out for a replay or if it’s the second leg of a tie, maintain a lead from the first leg. These are just two examples but anything like that will have an impact on the way they play, as they might not be gunning for goals.
It’s important to understand what each team are looking to get out of the tie before placing the bet, as this can be a really great insight into understand if the over or the under bet is going to be better value.
Don’t be afraid to try new leagues
When you bet on markets such as the outright result, it’s often advised that you should stick to the leagues that you know so you can utilise your understanding of how each team may approach the match. You might need to tap into that inner-intuition a little more than you would with say an over/under bet.
As these types of bets are much more stats based and can be placed using research as opposed to knowledge, don’t be afraid to target games from leagues that you might not be all that familiar with. As long as you have a solid idea of the type of stats that you need to pull in – which you should now have after reading this – then picking games from more remote leagues can actually work in your favour, as more often than not the pricing won’t be as strict due the lack of liquidity on that specific bet.
Traders pay most attention the games that get the most traction from customers, so there can be opportunities to come away better off when betting on more neglected leagues.